Navigating Uncertainty: Trade Policy Strengthens Outlook for Australian Wagyu Industry
Australia’s beef and Wagyu sectors are navigating one of the most challenging global trade environments in decades, but strong trade policy, diversification, and resilient demand are helping position the industry for continued success. 
Speaking at WagyuEdge’26 in April, Ms Catherine Raper, First Assistant Secretary and Australia’s Chief Negotiator Office of Global Trade Negotiations & AU-EU FTA, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, outlined how shifting global dynamics are shaping opportunities for Australian producers, and why trade policy has never been more important.
A turbulent global landscape
Catherine described a trading environment marked by conflict, supply chain disruptions, rising protectionism and volatile input costs.
“These are unpredictable conditions,” she said, pointing to disrupted shipping routes, high fuel and fertiliser costs, and geopolitical tensions, including conflict in the Middle East as key pressures affecting global markets.
Such uncertainty is compounded domestically by climate variability, from floods to dry conditions, creating a complex operating environment for producers making long-term investment decisions.
Yet amid these challenges, Catherin emphasised the critical role of government in securing “predictable market access, reducing trade barriers and creating options” for exporters.
Strong performance despite headwinds
Despite global instability, Australia’s trade performance remains exceptionally strong.
Two-way trade reached a record $1.28 trillion in 2024–25, while beef exports have surged dramatically, doubling in value from $9 billion in 2021 to $19 billion in 2025. At the same time, export volumes have climbed to around 1.5 million tonnes, reflecting robust international demand.
“Trade underpins around one in four jobs in Australia,” Catherine said, underscoring its importance to regional communities and industries like Wagyu.
Key growth has been supported by new and existing free trade agreements (FTAs), including deals with the United Kingdom and the United Arab Emirates, as well as strong demand in major markets such as the United States, China, Japan and South Korea.
The United States: a critical high-value market
The United States continues to be one of Australia’s most important and lucrative export destinations, particularly for premium beef.
Australian beef exports to the US rose by 34% in 2025, increasing from $4.4 billion to $5.9 billion, driven in part by US herd rebuilding and sustained consumer demand.
Catherine highlighted that despite ongoing shifts in US trade policy, Australian exporters have retained competitive access under the Australia–United States Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA).
Notably, Australian beef remains exempt from recent US import surcharge measures, reinforcing its strong market position.
“This outcome reinforces an important point, open trade and reliable supply chains work,” she said.
China: opportunity balanced with risk
China remains another vital market, particularly for premium products like Wagyu, supported by rising incomes and consumer demand for high-quality protein.
However, Catherine pointed to the introduction of a global safeguard measure on beef imports earlier this year as a reminder of how quickly market conditions can change.
While the measure applies globally rather than targeting Australia specifically, DFAT has worked closely with Chinese authorities to minimise disruption and improve transparency for exporters.
The broader lesson, she noted, is the importance of diversification.
“Trade impediments in China reinforced just how critical it is to have options in diverse markets,” she said, referencing previous disruptions affecting up to $20 billion in trade.
Diversification and new opportunities
Australia’s network of 19 free trade agreements continues to play a central role in expanding market access and reducing risk.
Existing agreements are already delivering substantial benefits:
- Japan: Beef tariffs reducing from 38.5% to 23.5%, improving access for premium exports
- South Korea: Tariffs down to just over 10%, with full elimination by 2028
- CPTPP and RCEP: Expanding regional access and opening new opportunities
At the same time, Southeast Asia and other emerging markets offer growing demand driven by expanding middle classes and increasing purchasing power.
Landmark EU trade deal delivers new access
A major highlight of Catherine’s address was the recent conclusion of the Australia–European Union Free Trade Agreement after eight years of negotiations.
The agreement provides:
- 35,000 tonnes of preferential beef access, including over 30,000 tonnes of new access
- An estimated $580 million in annual value
- Greater flexibility, including high-value fresh and chilled beef exports
The EU market, comprising 450 million consumers with a combined GDP of around $30 trillion, represents a significant new opportunity for Australian producers.
“This agreement fills a major gap in Australia’s trade architecture,” Catherine said, describing it as the “last missing piece” in the country’s FTA network.
Importantly, the agreement avoids additional regulatory burdens while supporting broader benefits such as lower input costs, increased two-way investment, and improved access to environmental goods.
Addressing non-tariff barriers
While tariff reductions remain important, Catherine noted that non-tariff barriers, such as complex certification processes and regulatory requirements are increasingly significant challenges for exporters.
She pointed to concerns around the EU’s deforestation regulation and Indonesia’s halal certification rules as examples where Australia continues to advocate strongly for practical, risk-based approaches.
Efforts to delay and refine such measures are aimed at reducing compliance costs while maintaining access.
The importance of a rules-based system
Catherine reaffirmed Australia’s commitment to a rules-based global trading system through institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO), which underpins stability and provides recourse when trade rules are breached.
Australia also continues to play a leading role in pushing for fairer agricultural trade rules through forums such as the Cairns Group.
A partnership with industry
Concluding her address, Catherine emphasised that effective trade policy relies on close collaboration with industry.
“Trade policy works best when it reflects commercial reality,” she said, highlighting ongoing engagement with producers, exporters and industry bodies.
With global markets continuing to shift, she reinforced DFAT’s commitment to supporting the Wagyu and broader beef sector in navigating uncertainty while capitalising on new opportunities.
“Access to more markets through more free trade agreements is an insurance policy against disruption,” she said.